Planning against the full range of cost-rise predictions is key: while trade rose and fell across all 5 regions, geopolitical risk was a shared signal, up 64.5 percent globally

• US supply chain costs could rise by as much as 5 percent.
• Costs are rising across trade and labor, container rates even more, up 6.8 percent.
• Manufacturing is growing at 5.5 percent, with industrial material import prices up 17.5 percent.
• The US saw growth in both import (4.6 percent) and export (4.7 percent) values.

CHICAGO, Oct. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Global strategy and management consulting firm Kearney‘s internal think tank, the Supply Chain Institute, today released its latest semiannual Supply Chain Navigator, 2026 Q4 briefing with 2027 outlooks: Supply chain costs rise across the board, geopolitical risk could push further. The Supply Chain Navigator report forecasts changing supply chain costs across industries, analyzing the operational, macroeconomic, and geopolitical forces that affect company performance. Since its inception 10 quarters ago, it has had an accuracy rate of more than 95 percent. The latest edition focuses on the factors behind rising trade and supply chain costs, including geopolitical risk, expanding manufacturing, climbing freight costs, and rising tech hardware prices.

“We’re looking at the same supply chain costs through two lenses: fundamentals and risk,” offers report co-author Rupal Deshmukh, a partner in Kearney’s Supply Chain Institute. “Fundamentals show what businesses are paying today. Risk shows the pressure building before it hits the reported numbers. Keeping the two separate tells us what has happened to costs and what could happen next.”

The Navigator analyzes the factors driving up supply chain costs and viewing them through the two lenses of fundamentals and sentiment. Fundamentals factors include sector input costs, labor costs, inventory, import prices, export prices, sector gross output, and consumer spending. Sentiment and risk factors include business activity, market-demand risk, market-cost risk, trade-credit risk, credit risk, Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) inventory levels, LMI inventory costs, and geopolitical risk. With global supply chains operating under an elevated cost structure due to all of these factors, the report lays out three disciplines companies should now prioritize when shaping their operations performance:

• Protecting operating continuity and how to make it accountable
• Releasing working capital by reducing excess stock, reviewing collections, and resolving payment disputes
• Planning for volatility in the 2.7 to 6.7 percent range, mapped by business unit, product, supplier, and customer

“The Supply Chain Navigator projects global costs to rise 2.7 percent in the first half of 2027, with an upside possibility of 6.7 percent,” noted Kearney partner, global lead for the Kearney Supply Chain Institute, and study co-author Suketu Gandhi. “That range masks significant divergences by country, with India possibly rising as much as 8.3 percent, China 5.9 percent, the United States 5 percent, Mexico 4.5 percent, and Germany 3.1 percent. Planning against the full range, not a single number, is what matters this quarter.”

Added Suketu Gandhi: “Geopolitical risk is the standout signal, by far the largest movement in either the fundamentals or sentiment data. It’s also a pressure point we’ve already flagged as one of executives’ top three roadblocks to growth.”

For more information on the report, please visit Supply Chain Navigator.

About the Supply Chain Navigator 
The Supply Chain Navigator is Kearney’s recurring global outlook created by the Kearney Supply Chain Institute that analyzes the forces behind supply chain costs and the implications for industries. It tracks fundamentals like labor, energy, and trade, alongside sentiment and risk signals like geopolitical risk, to provide insight into cost volatility. The current report outlines the overall risk landscape and provides strategies for leaders navigating supply chain decisions in the last quarter of 2026, going into Q1 2027. For more on the Navigator, please see here.

About the Kearney Supply Chain Institute
The Kearney Supply Chain Institute (KSCI), part of Kearney’s Foresight network, generates strategic insights to help global business leaders integrate fragmented operational efforts and transform their supply chains. As the authority on supply chain foresights and leading operational practices, the KSCI regularly conducts well-regarded studies and competitions on topics critical to the operations world.

About Kearney
For 100 years, Kearney has been a leading management consulting firm and trusted partner to three-quarters of the Fortune Global 500 and governments around the world. With a presence across more than 40 countries, our people make us who we are. We work impact first, tackling your toughest challenges with original thinking and a commitment to making change happen together. By your side, we deliver—value, results, impact. To learn more about Kearney, please visit www.kearney.com 

US Press contact:  

Meir Kahtan
Meir Kahtan Public Relations
+1 917-864-0800
mkahtan@rcn.com

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SOURCE Kearney